The RAND Forecasting Initiative

RFI was a crowdsourced forecasting program run by RAND. It was preceded by the INFER program at University of Maryland's ARLIS and Foretell from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology within Georgetown University before that. The platform was built and operated by Cultivate Labs. Several thousand analysts, subject matter experts, and members of the public submitted probabilistic forecasts on geopolitical, technology, and policy questions. Those forecasts were aggregated into crowd estimates used to inform RAND research and policy analysis.

The program has ended and the platform has been shut down. This archive preserves the part of the record that belongs to the people who built it: the accuracy standings that forecasters earned, and the questions the crowd answered.