It has already happened in Italy.
2.298958
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Pretty sure this will be happening eventually.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Less sure about the timeline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Pretty sure it's happening.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Less sure Meta will be able to detect it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I am almost sure they will enable it eventually, because I perceive digital provenance as absolutely necessary given the onslaught of generated content.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Less sure about the timeline. Might take until 2024.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Less than 4 million
10%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
I have no idea what World ID is. If I haven't heard about it yet, how can 4 mio people? ;)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be in the wrong info bubble regarding this one.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I am seeing how misinformation (and content in general) created by generative models is an increasing issue. I also saw a number of promising approaches to watermark content that is coming out of a generative model. I believe these approaches can easily be implemented at scale and will soon be used by the large platforms such as Facebook and Twitter, but potentially not WhatsApp, because messages are encrypted.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Platforms might not want to engage in the arms race between watermarking and detection technology that will likely ensue.
Files