michal_dubrawski
made their 9th forecast (view all):
michal_dubrawski quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM
Probability
Answer
40% (-28%)
Yes
60% (+28%)
No

*** EDIT 29.07.2024: I probably updated too early and too strongly, so far, my calculations of Habitable Zone doesn't seem to be good enough fit for the HWC Habitable Zone classificatoon to make this strong judgments based on it - my current forecast is here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/135413 and it will be further updated soon ***

I am reducing strongly based on my new (not published yet) analysis and my current understanding: [edit: here is the copy of this comment so that anyone can access it: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/135314 and here is the same comment as part of INFER pro-team discussion https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/135233 ]

I still need to check my understanding and my calculations, but unless exoplanets discovery process has some anual changes in intensity, it looks to me that it is more likely than not that there were no exoplanet discovered this year which would fit all the required criteria to be added to the HWC and the problem is not related to their irregular updates, they simply may not have anything to report. Still, they should probably publish an update already with results of using new model they mentioned to @ctsats

I still need to check the calculations and may go back up in a day or two, but this probability reflects my current state of knowledge and understanding.

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michal_dubrawski
made a comment:

This is the copy of the comment which I mentioned and linked to above (I replied to @404_NOT_FOUND comment which mentioned me and I got there via notification so before @ctsats informed me I did not realize that I wrote that in pro team only discussion - here is the full text (I will now update the link above to link to this comment instead): 

"regarding my previous comment here - I am progressing with my calculations based on data from HWC data source and it looks like the problem might not be with the catalog's updates, but with the lack of exoplanets found in 2024 which are meeting the criteria. I will report more tomorrow I hope.


As you can see here, it is possible to filter data in NASA Exoplanets Archive (which is mentioned as main source for HWC on their website) using two of the easier criterias and the year. For the Habitable Zone you need to do calculations, and the data I needed for them which I thoght was missing -was only missing because you simply need to do calculations on other variables and I now have it in Google Sheet which I am testing by adding exoplanets previously added to the catalog."
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