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Research Title |
RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) |
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Research Purpose |
This research is being conducted by the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). The purpose of this research is to elicit forecasts to inform analyses and policy recommendations. We are inviting you to participate because we value your observations, experience, and subject matter expertise that can be leveraged for forecasting. |
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Research Procedures |
New Participants: You will create an account with a unique username as part of your registration to participate on the website. You will be asked to submit a brief application. The application form will ask you background questions (e.g., your age, level of education, area of degree, etc.) and level of familiarity with a particular policy question and related topics. The average time to register on the RFI platform is 5 minutes. There are no minimum requirements to participate. Upon registering, you will receive instructions about how to forecast and will have online access to the questions to be forecasted. - - - Existing Participants: By re-consenting, you will maintain your current username and past performance. Your previous (and future) forecasting data will be present on the RFI site and available to RAND researchers. Upon (re)consenting, you will have online access to the questions to be forecasted. However, if you choose to withdraw from the study at this time and would like to request your data be deleted, email us at [email protected]. - - - Forecasting involves providing a probability that an event will occur, as well as a rationale for the probability. You will be encouraged to regularly make, and update, your forecasts on the questions of interest to you. You may also have the option to suggest questions for your peer participants to forecast about. Here are examples of forecasting questions like the ones you may be asked:
After making forecasts, you will leave the website. You will be scored based on the accuracy of your forecasts. The results will inform RFI research analysis. The study is entirely online and you can make forecasts at any time while remaining anonymous to other participants through your username. Your personally identifiable information (e.g., name, email address) is not displayed to other platform users nor connected to the username displayed to other users. If you wish to remain anonymous, please consider choosing a username that is unique. Periodically, you may be asked to participate in optional questionnaires through the platform to inform and improve the user experience, recruitment, and retention of participants. |
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Potential Risks and Discomforts |
There are no known risks from participating in this research study. Although your background data will be stored on a password-protected server, breaches are always possible.
The RFI team reserves the right to remove you from the study if you post inappropriate content. |
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Potential Benefits |
You will not receive any direct benefits. There are possible indirect benefits from participating, such as the opportunity to develop your forecasting skills. Participants may be invited to relevant training and community-based webinars with subject matter experts in forecasting and policy to foster a more collaborative forecasting environment among those who wish to join such events. |
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Confidentiality
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Any potential loss of confidentiality will be minimized by securing all digital data on password protected servers and network security best practices and keeping access to researchers who have undergone specific Human Subjects Protection Committee training per RAND’s Institutional Review Board requirements. Identifiable data will be retained for 10 years after program closeout. The answers you submit will be visible on the website so please ensure that you do not include any self-identifying information.
Aggregated forecasting data may be added to a publicly accessible database (e.g. an open science database). Data may be re-analyzed as part of future research projects but would not be connected to specific users.
If we write a report or article about this research project, your identity will be protected to the maximum extent possible. If we choose to include a direct quote from your forecast, we will reach out separately for your consent. |
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Compensation |
Forecasters:
By participating as a forecaster (not a Pro Forecaster), you will be eligible for awards. Rewards (such as a $50 Amazon gift certificate) may be awarded to (1) the most accurate forecaster (calculated as the participant with the highest Brier Score overall), (2) the best informer (most helpful comments, news links, etc.) and (3) the most active participant (highest forecast count) on a quarterly basis. Additional awards may be announced over time, and you are encouraged to regularly check the forecasting website to find up-to-date information about current incentives.
Pro Forecasters:
Pro Forecasters will be compensated at a monthly rate for dedicating 10 hours per month making forecasts. Reimbursement amount will be equal among all Pro Forecasters. The monthly rate will be as advertised to Pro Forecasters at the time of recruitment. Pro Forecasters will be recruited from current users on the platform based on their accuracy and participation in forecasting over the past year. If Pro Forecasters achieve the agreed upon commitment in a given month, they are compensated monthly via direct deposit payments. Additional awards may be announced over time, and Pro Forecasters are encouraged to regularly check the forecasting website to find up-to-date information about current incentives.
Cultivate Labs will use direct deposit platforms (Gusto and Veem) to distribute platform-based awards. These direct deposit payments will require your name and address to receive compensation. You will then be directed to set up accounts through platforms Gusto (if US-based) or Veem (if international), which will collect information such as bank information to disburse your award. Your direct deposit information will not be provided to RFI or Cultivate Labs.
Competitions:
Forecasters may be invited to participate in forecasting competitions. Some of these competitions may include a team component. Participating in team forecasting competitions may require you to share information about yourself (name, email address, etc.) to teammates and/or the RFI team. Exact details will be shared before the competitions and will be provided prior to committing to competitions. Team forecasting is completely voluntary.
Forecasting awards on the RFI platform related to competitions will be regularly updated on our website.
Your compensation will be provided via Cultivate Labs.
Cultivate Labs will use direct deposit platforms (Gusto and Veem) to distribute platform-based awards. These direct deposit payments will require your name and address to receive compensation. You will then be directed to set up accounts through platforms Gusto (if US-based) or Veem (if international), which will collect information such as bank information to disburse your award. Your direct deposit information will not be provided to RAND or Cultivate Labs.
If your compensation is a gift card, then it will be distributed via your email address.
You will be responsible for any taxes assessed on the compensation.
If you refuse compensation, you may still participate. |
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Right to Withdraw and Questions |
Your participation in this research is completely voluntary. You may choose not to take part at all. If you decide to participate in this research, you may stop participating at any time. If you decide not to participate in this study or if you stop participating at any time, you will not be penalized or lose any benefits to which you otherwise qualify. Identifiable data will be retained for 10 years after a specific forecasting question has resolved (i.e., after the forecasting period for a particular question has closed).
If you have questions about your rights as a research participant or need to report a research-related concern, please contact RAND’s Human Subjects Protection Committee toll-free at (866) 697-5620 or email [email protected]. |
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Participant Rights |
If you have questions about your rights as a research participant or need to report a research-related concern, please contact RAND's Human Subjects Protection Committee toll-free at (866) 697-5620 or email [email protected]. |
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Statement of Consent |
Your selection of “Accept” below indicates that you are at least 18 years of age; you have read this consent form or have had it read to you; your questions have been answered to your satisfaction and you voluntarily agree to participate in this research study. You may request or print a copy of this consent form.
If you agree to participate, select “Accept” below. |