I use the Powell & Thyne's data (they are based on a 2011 published paper, and they are regularly updated since; seem to be the standard reference on the topic), as compiled by VoA. I have removed the first decade (1950s), when decolonization in Africa was still in progress, to end up with data for the last 64 years (1960-2023). The base rate in this dataset is 1.65 successful attempts per year, or 0.8 per a 6-month period, roughly in line with other similar calculations below.
Fitting a Poisson distribution on these data, I come up with a probability of ~81% for at least one successful coup on a calendar year (12 months), which I simply half to end up with 40% as a first approach.
It should be noticed that, like the vast majority of existing forecasts below, this is based solely on the outside view (historical base rates). Detailed considerations of risk for specific countries in the specific time period (the inside view) have not been taken into account here - they will (hopefully) be taken into account for further revisions.
I use the Powell & Thyne's data (they are based on a 2011 published paper, and they are regularly updated since; seem to be the standard reference on the topic), as compiled by VoA. I have removed the first decade (1950s), when decolonization in Africa was still in progress, to end up with data for the last 64 years (1960-2023). The base rate in this dataset is 1.65 successful attempts per year, or 0.8 per a 6-month period, roughly in line with other similar calculations below.
Fitting a Poisson distribution on these data, I come up with a probability of ~81% for at least one successful coup on a calendar year (12 months), which I simply half to end up with 40% as a first approach.
It should be noticed that, like the vast majority of existing forecasts below, this is based solely on the outside view (historical base rates). Detailed considerations of risk for specific countries in the specific time period (the inside view) have not been taken into account here - they will (hopefully) be taken into account for further revisions.