SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 
DKC
made their 15th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania

Russia is needing to dig deep (very large bonuses) to replenish its soldiers. This leads me think they will need several years post-Ukraine war before they will be prepared to launch another invasion. Affirming at less than .5% chance for all 3 countries.

https://thedefensepost.com/2024/09/11/russian-army-recruitment-sixfold/

FTA: The Russian military’s enticing recruitment offers appear to be paying off as the number of newly-enlisted troops increased sixfold over the past year.


Citing data from the federal budget, local media outlet Important Stories claimed that 166,000 people had signed up for the Russian armed forces in the first half of 2024.


This is significantly higher than the 26,700 it recruited during the same period in 2023.


The number is expected to increase further to 190,000 by July 2024, according to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev.


The alleged increase in Russian military strength comes amid reports that it is now struggling with a depleted force, as Moscow has reportedly lost more than 350,000 troops since launching its invasion in February 2022.

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username