The more I read about the current situation along the frontline in Eastern Ukraine, the less likely it seems that Russia will engage in the Baltics in the next 3 years.
I have a hard time giving extremely low probabilities with such a wide forecasting window, but a full-blown invasion is simply implausible.
There might be some likelihood that disputes along the border cause accidents that turn into short-scale skirmishes, but nothing more.
There might be some leeway in the definition of significant deployment of Russian military forces [...] "across the border into the territory". Russia could potentially try to forcefully take control of a very small area along the border. That might count toward a positive resolution,
The more I read about the current situation along the frontline in Eastern Ukraine, the less likely it seems that Russia will engage in the Baltics in the next 3 years.
I have a hard time giving extremely low probabilities with such a wide forecasting window, but a full-blown invasion is simply implausible.
There might be some likelihood that disputes along the border cause accidents that turn into short-scale skirmishes, but nothing more.
There might be some leeway in the definition of significant deployment of Russian military forces [...] "across the border into the territory". Russia could potentially try to forcefully take control of a very small area along the border. That might count toward a positive resolution,