Dateline 7-16-2024 Another measure of the unbalanced state of China’s economy is the size of the housing and credit market bubble it has created. According to Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, housing now constitutes around 30 percent of the Chinese economy. That is around one and a half times the amount in other industrialized economies. Meanwhile, according to the Bank for International Settlements, since 2008, Chinese private sector credit has increased by around 100 percent of GDP. That rate of credit expansion is larger than that which preceded Japan’s lost economic decade in the 1990s and that which preceded the 2008 US housing and subprime credit market bust.
There is now the clearest of evidence that China’s housing and credit market bubble has burst.
See also China's demographic problem, with a huge overhang of the elderly who used to have multiple children to support them. Increasingly, there will be fewer on average than one working person per every two retirees. Can China afford to begin providing retirements for these people? Or must they work until they drop dead?
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Why might you be wrong?
China might decide that it can't afford to NOT build more foreign military bases. A time-tested way for autocrats to remain in power is to launch foreign wars. In China's case it could blame foreign devils for its economic woes, and take seemingly apropriate military measures.
Why do you think you're right?
Influenced by @DKC plus China's economic perils:
Dateline 7-16-2024 Another measure of the unbalanced state of China’s economy is the size of the housing and credit market bubble it has created. According to Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, housing now constitutes around 30 percent of the Chinese economy. That is around one and a half times the amount in other industrialized economies. Meanwhile, according to the Bank for International Settlements, since 2008, Chinese private sector credit has increased by around 100 percent of GDP. That rate of credit expansion is larger than that which preceded Japan’s lost economic decade in the 1990s and that which preceded the 2008 US housing and subprime credit market bust.
There is now the clearest of evidence that China’s housing and credit market bubble has burst.
Source: https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trouble/
See also China's demographic problem, with a huge overhang of the elderly who used to have multiple children to support them. Increasingly, there will be fewer on average than one working person per every two retirees. Can China afford to begin providing retirements for these people? Or must they work until they drop dead?
Why might you be wrong?
China might decide that it can't afford to NOT build more foreign military bases. A time-tested way for autocrats to remain in power is to launch foreign wars. In China's case it could blame foreign devils for its economic woes, and take seemingly apropriate military measures.