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DKC
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60% (0%)
Yes
Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025
40% (0%)
No
Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025

Affirming. I thought I would drop based on some of the new base rates that have been posted and reports of Wagner troops moving out. But I will stay a bit higher on yes than the crowd thanks to @lygodesma for pointing out Tunisia's upcoming election.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/14/tunisia-arrests-dozens-of-opposition-members-in-pre-election-crackdown

FTA: 

At least 80 members of Tunisia’s largest opposition party Ennahdha have been arrested, party officials said, as thousands took to the streets to protest against President Kais Saied ahead of the presidential election.


As the campaign season formally begins on Saturday, opposition parties, politicians and human rights groups are accusing Saied’s administration of using “arbitrary restrictions” and intimidation to secure his re-election in the October 6 poll.

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