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VidurKapur
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania

This remains exceedingly unlikely. Even if Russia does achieve what it would consider to be success in Ukraine, it doesn't necessarily mean that it would go for a NATO country next. As the alleged Russia-backed coup attempt in Armenia illustrates, Russia may well want to increase its control over its non-NATO neighbours.

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