Going up towards slightly more likely than not. In addition to all the insightful analyses including that of @cmeinel , the fact that residents of southern Lebanon are fleeing tells this series of attacks might likely lead to a land invasion.
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/9/23/thousands-of-people-in-south-lebanon-flee-israeli-bombardment
Going up towards slightly more likely than not. In addition to all the insightful analyses including that of @cmeinel , the fact that residents of southern Lebanon are fleeing tells this series of attacks might likely lead to a land invasion.
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/9/23/thousands-of-people-in-south-lebanon-flee-israeli-bombardment