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DKC
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55% (-5%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
45% (+5%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025

Moving down a few points because as someone noted, maybe the easy countries to takeover have already happened.

Though @belikewater suggest Libya,.

And I think Cameroon may be a candidate.

https://www.voanews.com/a/cameroon-opposition-civil-society-deny-polls-postponement-say-its-ploy-to-extend-long-serving-presidents-role/7691550.html


Yet @ctsats made a good argument that the resolution criteria could be tricky. A civil war (which what I think is happening in Libya)  and laws that infringe Democracy (maybe what is happening in Cameroon) don't count.

So I'm dropping a few points. But not lower, because I think the infringing on Democracy in Cameroon could lead to coup, IMHO.

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