The one-year mortality rate for an 84-year-old male is around 8% to 10%, which should serve as the lower boundary for any forecast here. One could argue that he likely has access to better-than-average healthcare; however, treating high figures is not always straightforward, as the patient's authority may influence the treatment process. Additionally, Ali Khamenei has a history of health issues. Anyway I will reduce probability of such outcome slightly to 7%
Transition of Power
From time to time, there are articles discussing how such a process might play out, with potential replacement names being mentioned. While this is possible, we would likely see more significant movements among high-ranking officials signaling such a possibility. It is also expected that any transition would be announced in advance, making a one-year window quite narrow. For this reason, I would assign no more than a 1% probability to such an outcome within one year. In 1989, there was no transition of power, until Ali Khamenei was chosen after Khomeini's death.
Coup/Revolution/Flight
I see this as highly unlikely. Despite numerous protests in recent years, the Islamic regime’s grip on power remains strong.
Great rationale, Michał! In the "Coup/Revolution/Flight" have you also considered ISIS? In my opinion, they are unlikely to be able to get him, they lack track record of successful attempts at high ranking well-guarded government officials, but they were able to do these coordinated attacks in Tehran on the Iranian Parliament and the Mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/6/7/gunmen-attack-irans-parliament-khomeini-shrine (For me, it does not look like a super-sophisticated attack nor with a strong force, but still, they were able to reach these high profile places - probably the security has been increased since then). ISIS also claimed responsibility for this bomb attack in January this year: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/04/iran-kerman-attack-islamic-state-suspicion-border-afghanistan-pakistan
There are several possible outcomes:
Death
The one-year mortality rate for an 84-year-old male is around 8% to 10%, which should serve as the lower boundary for any forecast here. One could argue that he likely has access to better-than-average healthcare; however, treating high figures is not always straightforward, as the patient's authority may influence the treatment process. Additionally, Ali Khamenei has a history of health issues. Anyway I will reduce probability of such outcome slightly to 7%
Transition of Power
From time to time, there are articles discussing how such a process might play out, with potential replacement names being mentioned. While this is possible, we would likely see more significant movements among high-ranking officials signaling such a possibility. It is also expected that any transition would be announced in advance, making a one-year window quite narrow. For this reason, I would assign no more than a 1% probability to such an outcome within one year. In 1989, there was no transition of power, until Ali Khamenei was chosen after Khomeini's death.
Coup/Revolution/Flight
I see this as highly unlikely. Despite numerous protests in recent years, the Islamic regime’s grip on power remains strong.
Great rationale, Michał! In the "Coup/Revolution/Flight" have you also considered ISIS? In my opinion, they are unlikely to be able to get him, they lack track record of successful attempts at high ranking well-guarded government officials, but they were able to do these coordinated attacks in Tehran on the Iranian Parliament and the Mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/6/7/gunmen-attack-irans-parliament-khomeini-shrine (For me, it does not look like a super-sophisticated attack nor with a strong force, but still, they were able to reach these high profile places - probably the security has been increased since then).
ISIS also claimed responsibility for this bomb attack in January this year: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/04/iran-kerman-attack-islamic-state-suspicion-border-afghanistan-pakistan