Dateline 9-26-2024 The Burkinabe junta claimed to thwart another coup, which it is using to rally populist support after several large-scale insurgency massacres of civilians. Burkinabe Security Minister Mahamadou Sana made a statement on state media on September 24 that the junta had thwarted a broad conspiracy to overthrow the junta.[112] Sana said the conspiracy involved previous junta leader Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, Western intelligence agencies, European mercenaries, and dissidents based in neighboring countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria.[113] Sana said the plan involved a group of 150 militants that were to attack the presidential palace in Ouagadougou, and two other groups to attack key drone installations and border posts to preoccupy security forces.[114] The junta also framed a recent JNIM attack on August 2024 that killed hundreds of civilians as part of the plot and said that the attack aimed to destabilize the country to facilitate the coup.[115]
CTP has assessed in recent months that the Burkinabe junta faced a high coup risk due to several major Salafi-jihadi attacks. [...] Large-scale insurgent attacks contributed to both successful coup attempts in Burkina Faso since 2022.
Somehow we seem to have largely missed this warning by the CTP...
But that's the thing: it was foiled. The main reason I went down relative to the base rate is that these days the "coup awareness" is higher and the "anti-coup measures" seem to be more effective.
A coup was thwarted yesterday in Burkina Faso.
Dateline 9-26-2024 The Burkinabe junta claimed to thwart another coup, which it is using to rally populist support after several large-scale insurgency massacres of civilians. Burkinabe Security Minister Mahamadou Sana made a statement on state media on September 24 that the junta had thwarted a broad conspiracy to overthrow the junta.[112] Sana said the conspiracy involved previous junta leader Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, Western intelligence agencies, European mercenaries, and dissidents based in neighboring countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria.[113] Sana said the plan involved a group of 150 militants that were to attack the presidential palace in Ouagadougou, and two other groups to attack key drone installations and border posts to preoccupy security forces.[114] The junta also framed a recent JNIM attack on August 2024 that killed hundreds of civilians as part of the plot and said that the attack aimed to destabilize the country to facilitate the coup.[115]
Source: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-september-26-2024-fano-offensive-in-ethiopias-amhara-egypt-arms-somalia-rebel-drones-in-mali-burkina-thwarts-another-coup?mkt_tok=NDc1LVBCUS05NzEAAAGVzgjOeh25bQS9m87-_zkOPTqH8dSGLdiLFISxyzbBNGl96ANZs5gGlRJW4E2Ptj07YJJGCpbtTg32Iq4HkPAmziBuxID7sv1bgGeEH4LnGYSUGb2G#Burkina
Nice catch!
Somehow we seem to have largely missed this warning by the CTP...