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TBall
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (+4%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025
85% (-4%)
No
Sep 28, 2024 to Sep 28, 2025

I was at 11% based on actuarial tables. Following Nasrallah’s death, is there a chance the Israelis would want to kill the Supreme Leader? He is the head what they call the “octopus” and is clearly an enemy of the state of Israel. Adding a little for uncertainty. 

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