A major escalation in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel
The killing of Hezbollah's leader Nasrallah
How will these events impact the likelihood of the election of a new President in the next 6 months?
Lebanon is in a situation of emergency. It is reasonable to assume that national priorities are quickly shifting. On the one hand, this could cause internal politics to take the back seat. On the other, this is the exact situation in which it would be crucially important to fill the vacancy. Among the President of Lebanon's duties and responsibilities are a few that have been designed for situations like the current one:
Negotiate and ratify international treaties
Pass "emergency decrees" without the parliament's approval [1]
The argument that internal politics are now secondary to the escalating conflict can also emphasize the potential for swift resolution of disagreements to address the situation.
The urgency of the matter is highlighted by the newly appointed French Foreign Minister's visit to Lebanon, in which he
emphasized "the importance of electing a president as a fundamental priority while also stressing the need to end the war." [2]
Meanwhile, Hezbollah reportedly picked Safieddine as a successor to Nasrallah [3]. Hezbollah's leadership is being decimated, this weakening could create an opportunity to elect a President without the usual strong opposition from the Islamist party. But it could also be possible that Hezbollah ceases its opposition so as not to become completely isolated in Lebanese politics.
The heightened uncertainty could play out in many different scenarios.
Two major developments shook Lebanon last week:
How will these events impact the likelihood of the election of a new President in the next 6 months?
Lebanon is in a situation of emergency. It is reasonable to assume that national priorities are quickly shifting. On the one hand, this could cause internal politics to take the back seat. On the other, this is the exact situation in which it would be crucially important to fill the vacancy. Among the President of Lebanon's duties and responsibilities are a few that have been designed for situations like the current one:
The argument that internal politics are now secondary to the escalating conflict can also emphasize the potential for swift resolution of disagreements to address the situation.
The urgency of the matter is highlighted by the newly appointed French Foreign Minister's visit to Lebanon, in which he
Meanwhile, Hezbollah reportedly picked Safieddine as a successor to Nasrallah [3]. Hezbollah's leadership is being decimated, this weakening could create an opportunity to elect a President without the usual strong opposition from the Islamist party. But it could also be possible that Hezbollah ceases its opposition so as not to become completely isolated in Lebanese politics.
The heightened uncertainty could play out in many different scenarios.
[1] President of Lebanon - Role and responsibilities
[2] Maronite Patriarch Al-Rahi meets with French Foreign Minister in Bkerke to discuss presidential election and regional stability
[3] Safieddine named new Hezbollah leader