RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

o-maverick made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

75%

Yes

Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

25%

Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

After a period of relative calm between 2013 and 2020, the number of coups in Africa has sharply risen, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel region (the area between the Saara Desert and the tropical forests). Some analysts call it the "Coup Belt." It is the longest corridor of military rule on Earth, stretching over 6000 km between the Atlantic and the Red Sea.

The military takeovers were successful in eight countries: Gabon (2023), Niger (2023), Burkina Faso (2022), Sudan (2021), Guinea (2021), Chad (2021) and Mali (2020-21). Other countries (such as Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, and Congo) have suffered from coup attempts in 2024 but managed to suppress them.

Most of these countries were former French colonies. They experienced strong anti-french sentiments fueled by a perception of a remaining colonial French presence as seen in (1) the alignment of local authoritarian regimes with Paris, as well as (2) the monetary unions under French control (the CFA) and (3) French (and European) military presence in the region, whether directly with stationed troops or indirectly with regional organizations such as ECOWAS, perceived by some as a puppet of the French/West.

Another source of anger that played a central role was the local authorities' inability (and, by extension, the French and the West) to repel Islamist militant violence (i.e., ISIS and its like-minded groups). This aspect is critical to understanding what is happening there.

All this sentiment grew amid dire economic conditions (especially after the COVID crisis and the authorities' responses, which some saw as draconian).

Local military leadership (notably young officers) channeled the dissatisfaction into seizing power - in many cases, without casualties.

Often, the local population perceived the overthrown rulers as corrupt and authoritarian. They had changed their constitutions, manipulated elections, and suppressed or eliminated opposition to collect or retain power by all means possible. Many of them had been in charge for decades. It is not by chance that many of these coups did not elicit visible public opposition. In fact, in many cases, the downfall of the incumbent governments was greeted by widespread celebrations on the streets.

Soon after, coup leaders made new allies, seeking support from either Russia (and its Wagner Group, now Africa Corps) or Turkey (given Erdogan's dreams of a return to the "Ottoman Empire"), to fight jihadist groups. It is important to remember that these alliances with Russia date back to 2020 (so before the invasion of Ukraine, which took place in February 2022).

Initially, Russia aimed to pursue commercial profits through military-related contracts, but Moscow gradually added the political intention of expanding its aligned partners. Now, Russia is the largest arms supplier to Africa, accounting for nearly half of all weapons flowing into the African continent.

As the situation develops, the 'coup season' seems far from over. A few factors push me to increase the likelihood of a new successful coup from above the 50/50 threshold:

According to Powell and Thyne, from the Cline Center University of Illinois, 49% of the coup attempts in Africa from 1950 to 2023 have succeeded (109 successful out of 220 attempts). However, the "success rate" among the 2020-2023 coup attempts is approximately 65% (The graphics are below: https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/).
Succeeding in taking over power does not mean succeeding in remaining in power. Poverty, political instability, systemic corruption, violent extremism, and internal divisions make the region continent unstable and conflict-prone.
Russia has increased its power and influence in the region, while France and other Western countries are still battling to keep their local alliances. Besides that, there's an ongoing battle of information regarding multiple actors. Whether for one side or the other, the likelihood of a successful attempt to overthrow power is high.
Recent coup attempts (in Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, and Gabon) show that such events will likely continue.
Many African countries, such as Senegal, Libya, and Sudan, have question marks over their political future.
Coup leaders in the Sahel are learning from and supporting each other. The military putschists of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea recognize each other as potential allies and know that they can rely on the support of other juntas in the region, as seen in the recent creation of the Sahel States Alliance (AES).