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efosong
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
98% (+23%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
2% (-23%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

Israeli tanks have amassed on the Lebanese border. Israel have told the US that a ground incursion is about to happen. The Israeli defence minister is quoted as saying: "The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon."

Unless this is all a bluff (unlikely given the events of the past few weeks), we should expect a ground invasion soon. I assume this, in addition to the quote from the defence minister (and reading past softer language like 'limited incursion') will resolve this question "Yes".


Some source links via reuters:

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