Maintaining my forecast. So many options. So many problems. So many fragile governments.
I think Haftar in Libya stands a chance of mounting a successful coup. He tried to take control before, but forces against him had more money. Now, it appears that he may have the former head of the Libyan central bank, al-Kabir, on his side, at least partially and at least temporarily. But a new central bank governor has just been appointed, so the stage is now set for a fight. It's not clear to me whether al-Kabir will hand over the passwords to the kingdom. I don't know Libyan politics in detail, but it seems possible to me that al-Kabir could side with Haftar, his enemy's enemy, and that the two could develop a mutually beneficial relationship - and stage a coup. https://apnews.com/article/libya-belqasem-central-bank-governor-97dff23a0ccb85fa81ab0cd8a37ebabf
As a result of the 2014-2020 civil war, Libya is practically divided in two, with PM Dabaiba ruling in the west and Haftar in the east (notice the mentions to the "eastern" parliament in the article you have linked to); even if this power balance changes significantly in favor of Haftar, extending his power to the west, as you seem to suggest, it is highly doubtful that it will be considered a coup for the purposes of the question here, rather than an act of civil war (which do not count toward resolution). To be considered a coup, Haftar would have to somehow overthrow the PM from inside western Libya (marching with an army from the outside sounds more like a civil war act).
But a new central bank governor has just been appointed, so the stage is now set for a fight.
It's not clear on what grounds you believe so: al-Kabir was removed by the government in the west, while his successor was appointed by the Haftar-controlled east; and according to the article you have linked to:
During the months that led up to his removal, al-Kabir was criticized by officials from both sides of the North African nation’s political divide over the allocation of Libya’s oil money. (emphasis mine)
So many options. So many problems. So many fragile governments.
Also, so many months (13, to be precise, i.e. more than double the question time window) since the last successful coup in Aug 2023...
Maintaining my forecast. So many options. So many problems. So many fragile governments.
I think Haftar in Libya stands a chance of mounting a successful coup. He tried to take control before, but forces against him had more money. Now, it appears that he may have the former head of the Libyan central bank, al-Kabir, on his side, at least partially and at least temporarily. But a new central bank governor has just been appointed, so the stage is now set for a fight. It's not clear to me whether al-Kabir will hand over the passwords to the kingdom. I don't know Libyan politics in detail, but it seems possible to me that al-Kabir could side with Haftar, his enemy's enemy, and that the two could develop a mutually beneficial relationship - and stage a coup.
https://apnews.com/article/libya-belqasem-central-bank-governor-97dff23a0ccb85fa81ab0cd8a37ebabf
As a result of the 2014-2020 civil war, Libya is practically divided in two, with PM Dabaiba ruling in the west and Haftar in the east (notice the mentions to the "eastern" parliament in the article you have linked to); even if this power balance changes significantly in favor of Haftar, extending his power to the west, as you seem to suggest, it is highly doubtful that it will be considered a coup for the purposes of the question here, rather than an act of civil war (which do not count toward resolution). To be considered a coup, Haftar would have to somehow overthrow the PM from inside western Libya (marching with an army from the outside sounds more like a civil war act).
It's not clear on what grounds you believe so: al-Kabir was removed by the government in the west, while his successor was appointed by the Haftar-controlled east; and according to the article you have linked to:
Also, so many months (13, to be precise, i.e. more than double the question time window) since the last successful coup in Aug 2023...