cmeinel
made their 6th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2024 01:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
47% (0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
53% (0%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025

I think that the next stage in Kais Saied’s Tunisian self-coup won't count as a coup. Am I wrong?

Dateline 10-2-2024 Tunisia holds a presidential election on Oct. 6 that is expected to be the final nail in the coffin of the first democracy to emerge from the 2011 Arab Spring protests.

As the vote approaches, President Kais Saied has used the country’s legal system to imprison or arrest at least a dozen potential election candidates and ban others from running. Foreign election monitors have been banned from observing an election that’s expected to be boycotted by a majority of the public.

Source: https://link.foreignpolicy.com/view/644279f8aced183da6130060lzflg.dyd/e3c491b1

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ctsats
made a comment:

My current reading of the situation is also that no, it will probably not count - it will look more like the continuation (and consolidation) of the current (self-coup) situation, and not like a new attempt: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/139898

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Rene
made a comment:
I agree with @ctsats 
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cmeinel
made a comment:
Thank you both for assisting me with this forecast. I appreciate the "team first" attitude of so many here.
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