"North Korea may carry out its seventh nuclear test to coincide with the U.S. presidential election, according to a briefing South Korean lawmakers received from their National Intelligence Service (NIS).
The last North Korean nuclear weapon test was in September 2017 during the heightened tensions between Washington and Pyongyang that year. A new test would be viewed as a serious provocation in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, and it would almost certainly be a warning to the next administration that the U.S. will have to pay more attention to North Korea in the years ahead.
If the test does take place this fall, it will be a reminder of the consequences of Trump’s failed North Korea policy and an indictment of the Biden administration’s neglect of this issue. Another North Korean nuclear test should force Washington to rethink U.S. policy and make a renewed push for an arms control agreement with the DPRK no matter who wins the election in November."
The U.S. presidential candidates and party platforms have shown little interest in engaging with North Korea so far, aside from criticizing Trump’s past interactions with Kim Jong-un. The lack of attention and absence of a new diplomatic strategy suggest that arms control negotiations are unlikely to be prioritized by the next administration. North Korea, having felt let down by previous talks with Trump, does not anticipate any significant policy shift from the U.S.
Given this disinterest, a new North Korean nuclear test could serve as a strategic move to compel Washington to pay attention and reconsider its current approach, potentially prompting a shift in U.S. policy to more achievable arms control goals. With the upcoming elections, this could be an ideal moment for North Korea to draw attention from Washington. As a result, I am beginning my forecast on the higher end.
They haven’t conducted a nuclear test in the past seven years and may not see the need to carry out another, even for political reasons, as there are other ways to capture U.S. attention. Additionally, another test could pose risks of groundwater contamination, though it’s uncertain whether this concern would deter the North Korean government from proceeding.
North Korea may carry out its seventh nuclear test to coincide with the U.S. presidential election, according to a briefing South Korean lawmakers received from their National Intelligence Service (NIS).
Having seen others burned (badly...) in this question in the past because they read similar reports too literally, I would very kindly advise some caution when assessing such statements.
The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol has been on 24-hour standby as North Korea has been expected to conduct its seventh nuclear test at any time, officials said Sunday. [...]
The National Intelligence Service has said the North could carry out its seventh nuclear test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7 [2022], after the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and before the U.S. midterm elections.
(No test in Oct-Nov 2022...)
Let's move from Oct 2022 earlier - to May 2022, and from the Koreans to the Americans:
The White House is braced for a North Korean missile or nuclear test while Joe Biden is on a trip to South Korea and Japan, which begins on Friday [May 20, 2022].
The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters on Wednesday [May 18, 2022]: “Our intelligence does reflect the genuine possibility that there will be either a further missile test, including long-range missile test, or a nuclear test, or frankly both in the days leading into, on or after the president’s trip to the region.
The North has not staged a nuclear test since September 2017, but experts have told Vox that all signs point to a seventh at any time — and even an eighth soon after
Officials in the United States and South Korea have warned for months that Pyongyang is preparing for a nuclear test after a five-year suspension
It could be considered a triumph of crowdsourced forecasting: despite the warnings, the crowd's highest forecast was at 57-59% (briefly, for a couple of days close to the question opening), before diving under 50% very early (Dec 8), and continuing to monotonically decrease since... Similar was the crowd's behavior in a relevant GJO question, where it never reached even 60% (despite some potentially influential extremists insisting at 99%)...
It would be actually useful (and possibly fun) to try to calculate such a "perverse" base rate, about how often the Koreans and/or the Americans expect with an apparent high confidence a NK nuclear test to be around the corner and to coincide with... well, something... :)
Why do you think you're right?
"North Korea may carry out its seventh nuclear test to coincide with the U.S. presidential election, according to a briefing South Korean lawmakers received from their National Intelligence Service (NIS).
The last North Korean nuclear weapon test was in September 2017 during the heightened tensions between Washington and Pyongyang that year. A new test would be viewed as a serious provocation in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, and it would almost certainly be a warning to the next administration that the U.S. will have to pay more attention to North Korea in the years ahead.
If the test does take place this fall, it will be a reminder of the consequences of Trump’s failed North Korea policy and an indictment of the Biden administration’s neglect of this issue. Another North Korean nuclear test should force Washington to rethink U.S. policy and make a renewed push for an arms control agreement with the DPRK no matter who wins the election in November."
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/north-korea-tests-nuke-test/
The U.S. presidential candidates and party platforms have shown little interest in engaging with North Korea so far, aside from criticizing Trump’s past interactions with Kim Jong-un. The lack of attention and absence of a new diplomatic strategy suggest that arms control negotiations are unlikely to be prioritized by the next administration. North Korea, having felt let down by previous talks with Trump, does not anticipate any significant policy shift from the U.S.
Given this disinterest, a new North Korean nuclear test could serve as a strategic move to compel Washington to pay attention and reconsider its current approach, potentially prompting a shift in U.S. policy to more achievable arms control goals. With the upcoming elections, this could be an ideal moment for North Korea to draw attention from Washington. As a result, I am beginning my forecast on the higher end.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/north-korea-tests-nuke-test/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/groundwater-carries-radiation-risk-north-korean-cities-near-nuke-test-site-2023-02-21/
Why might you be wrong?
They haven’t conducted a nuclear test in the past seven years and may not see the need to carry out another, even for political reasons, as there are other ways to capture U.S. attention. Additionally, another test could pose risks of groundwater contamination, though it’s uncertain whether this concern would deter the North Korean government from proceeding.
Having seen others burned (badly...) in this question in the past because they read similar reports too literally, I would very kindly advise some caution when assessing such statements.
Here's a similar story from... Oct 2022:
(No test in Oct-Nov 2022...)
Let's move from Oct 2022 earlier - to May 2022, and from the Koreans to the Americans:
White House braced for North Korean nuclear test during Biden’s Asia trip - The Guardian, May 18, 2022
(No test in May-Jun 2022...)
Let's move forward to Jan 2023 (Vox):
or even more forward, to April 2023 (Union of Concerned Scientists):
(No test in 2023 - in fact, still no test after 2017...)
We had a similar question here, Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?, opened on Nov 21, 2022; from the details:
It could be considered a triumph of crowdsourced forecasting: despite the warnings, the crowd's highest forecast was at 57-59% (briefly, for a couple of days close to the question opening), before diving under 50% very early (Dec 8), and continuing to monotonically decrease since... Similar was the crowd's behavior in a relevant GJO question, where it never reached even 60% (despite some potentially influential extremists insisting at 99%)...
It would be actually useful (and possibly fun) to try to calculate such a "perverse" base rate, about how often the Koreans and/or the Americans expect with an apparent high confidence a NK nuclear test to be around the corner and to coincide with... well, something... :)
Just sayin...