I expect that Trump’s election victory will be greeted with enthusiasm in the Kremlin. However, I don’t believe it will lead Russia to embark on another military adventure, particularly against countries that are not only NATO members but also part of the EU. The Russian government will likely test the limits of any increased flexibility it may enjoy, but it will also be cautious not to jeopardize its improved relations with Washington.
Ukraine has reason to be concerned, as do opposition parties in Georgia and perhaps even Moldova’s government, which recently eked out a narrow pro-EU victory. Yet, aside from Ukraine, I believe Russia will likely rely on non-military strategies to ramp up pressure in these regions.
As for the Baltic nations, they can likely expect acts of sabotage, campaigns aimed at mobilizing Russian-speaking minorities, and outright political and economic pressure.
I'm still raising my forecast for increased uncertainty ahead.
I expect that Trump’s election victory will be greeted with enthusiasm in the Kremlin. However, I don’t believe it will lead Russia to embark on another military adventure, particularly against countries that are not only NATO members but also part of the EU. The Russian government will likely test the limits of any increased flexibility it may enjoy, but it will also be cautious not to jeopardize its improved relations with Washington.
Ukraine has reason to be concerned, as do opposition parties in Georgia and perhaps even Moldova’s government, which recently eked out a narrow pro-EU victory. Yet, aside from Ukraine, I believe Russia will likely rely on non-military strategies to ramp up pressure in these regions.
As for the Baltic nations, they can likely expect acts of sabotage, campaigns aimed at mobilizing Russian-speaking minorities, and outright political and economic pressure.
I'm still raising my forecast for increased uncertainty ahead.