Trump's return to power could open new avenues for Russia in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, though it's unlikely that Moscow will resort to military options. If the U.S. steps back from international commitments, the EU may attempt to increase its support for these regions, but it’s unlikely that it could fully replace American influence. While a Trump presidency might not give Russia total freedom in its “near abroad,” it could reduce certain constraints, allowing Moscow to advance its interests more subtly in post-Soviet states.
In Moldova, reduced U.S. engagement could encourage Russia to intensify its pressure, particularly as Moldova grapples with Transnistrian tensions and a divided populace, as reflected in the recent election and referendum.
A hands-off U.S. approach could give Russia greater latitude to deepen its influence in Armenia through security agreements and economic ties, free from the risk of American interference. Russia might also pressure Armenia by hinting at support for Azerbaijani demands; however, such a move could risk backlash and potentially destabilize Russia's own standing in the region.
In Georgia, Russia is likely to continue backing the ruling Georgian Dream party. Despite allegations of electoral misconduct, substantial domestic support for Georgian Dream’s pro-Russian stance makes direct intervention by Moscow unnecessary. This is particularly true given the reduced likelihood that the U.S. under Trump will push for an investigation into the election irregularities.
In Kazakhstan, a less interventionist U.S. might encourage Russia to deepen its influence, likely focusing on economic integration and cultural ties, although it would remain cautious of China’s growing role in the region.
Trump's return to power could open new avenues for Russia in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, though it's unlikely that Moscow will resort to military options. If the U.S. steps back from international commitments, the EU may attempt to increase its support for these regions, but it’s unlikely that it could fully replace American influence. While a Trump presidency might not give Russia total freedom in its “near abroad,” it could reduce certain constraints, allowing Moscow to advance its interests more subtly in post-Soviet states.
In Moldova, reduced U.S. engagement could encourage Russia to intensify its pressure, particularly as Moldova grapples with Transnistrian tensions and a divided populace, as reflected in the recent election and referendum.
A hands-off U.S. approach could give Russia greater latitude to deepen its influence in Armenia through security agreements and economic ties, free from the risk of American interference. Russia might also pressure Armenia by hinting at support for Azerbaijani demands; however, such a move could risk backlash and potentially destabilize Russia's own standing in the region.
In Georgia, Russia is likely to continue backing the ruling Georgian Dream party. Despite allegations of electoral misconduct, substantial domestic support for Georgian Dream’s pro-Russian stance makes direct intervention by Moscow unnecessary. This is particularly true given the reduced likelihood that the U.S. under Trump will push for an investigation into the election irregularities.
In Kazakhstan, a less interventionist U.S. might encourage Russia to deepen its influence, likely focusing on economic integration and cultural ties, although it would remain cautious of China’s growing role in the region.