@Rene makes a great point here: increased uncertainty.
It seems quite clear that Trump intends to drastically alter the US approach to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The US has been the single greatest supporter of the Ukrainian military effort, so Ukraine might soon be forced to accept conditions on a ceasefire or risk losing further territory. A military disengagement becomes more likely in the next few years and, even if by a small extent, increases the possibility that freed Russian military capacity could be used elsewhere.
I'm not raising my forecast, as I believe a 3% cumulative chance that Russia could engage in the Baltic states is already sufficiently high.
It might have been better to have a single question on the likelihood of invasion of any of those countries, and then a separate conditional question on the most likely victim of such invasion.
@Rene makes a great point here: increased uncertainty.
It seems quite clear that Trump intends to drastically alter the US approach to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The US has been the single greatest supporter of the Ukrainian military effort, so Ukraine might soon be forced to accept conditions on a ceasefire or risk losing further territory. A military disengagement becomes more likely in the next few years and, even if by a small extent, increases the possibility that freed Russian military capacity could be used elsewhere.
I'm not raising my forecast, as I believe a 3% cumulative chance that Russia could engage in the Baltic states is already sufficiently high.
It might have been better to have a single question on the likelihood of invasion of any of those countries, and then a separate conditional question on the most likely victim of such invasion.