geoffodlum
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (+2%)
Estonia
2% (+2%)
Latvia
2% (+2%)
Lithuania

Trump's election and his strangely admiring view of Putin could presage the unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario under which the US leaves or suspends membership in NATO and Trump gives Putin secret (treacherous) assurances that US forces will not invoke Art V to protect one or all of the Baltic states.  It's almost incomprehensible that a US President would betray a NATO ally, but it can no longer be 100% ruled out.    

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