VidurKapur
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania

The victory of the Trump-Vance ticket in the recent Presidential election increases the probability that some NATO countries on the Russian border will be left undefended by the United States. However, Britain and France are nuclear powers that are still committed to NATO, and Trump's election isn't a huge update for me because I thought he was the slight favourite. Confirming my forecast (taking rounding into account).

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