Rene
made their 12th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 17, 2024 11:11AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
52% (+4%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
48% (-4%)
No
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025

Adding Equatorial Guinea to the list of possible countries. Russian instructors might deter any threats to the ruling dynasty, but they could also potentially strike a deal with the military leadership. However, doing so would seriously undermine their credibility.

"In Equatorial Guinea, where 82-year-old President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has ruled since seizing power in a coup in 1979 and is grooming his favorite son to succeed him, Russian security could ward off any threat to the ruling dynasty."

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-power-creeps-across-west-africa-with-equatorial-guinea-mission-2024-11-12/

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username