I am increasing, very slightly, treating reports about the Iranian Assembly of Experts being tasked to choose Khamenei's successor as a weak signal at best, as there were such reports in the past. I think the quote from this article describes it best:
"On November 7, Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamanei met with the Assembly of Experts and discussed plans for his successor. “The Assembly of Experts, as defined in our Constitution, is one of the most revolutionary institutions of the Islamic Republic,” he said. “Its significance lies in its unique responsibility to select the nation’s leader. This readiness to fulfill that role must always be maintained.”
One day after Khamenei’s remarks to the Assembly of Experts, where he emphasized the need for their readiness to select the next Supreme Leader, Mohammad Bagher Heydari Kashani, a member of the Assembly, described both the speech and the atmosphere as such: “We held our breath. He gave explicit orders for the Assembly to act swiftly and decisively, without hesitation, to appoint the next leader in accordance with constitutional guidelines… The mere thought of the Leader’s absence moved some members to tears; they couldn’t hold back their emotions at the possibility of the Supreme Leader’s martyrdom.”
These remarks sparked widespread controversy within the regime and surfaced in Friday prayer sermons on November 15 across various cities. Several of Khamenei’s appointees spoke on the issue, their conflicting statements revealing the confusion and anxiety caused by the anticipation of Khamenei’s potential demise at the highest levels of the regime.
During Friday prayers in Shahrekord, Abdollah Keyvani, another member of the Assembly of Experts, outright denied Heydari’s account: “Someone said the members of the Assembly cried… That’s not true; there was laughter, joy, and a sense of empowerment in the session. We were delighted, but there weren’t even tears of joy. The claim that the Leader directed the Assembly to discuss the next Supreme Leader is completely untrue.”
In Isfahan, Abolhassan Mahdavi, Khamenei’s representative and the Friday prayer leader in the city, remarked, “Khamenei’s statement that the Assembly should identify suitable candidates for leadership in case of emergency isn’t new; I’ve heard him mention this about 17 or 18 times over the past 20 years.” He continued, “There is a committee within the Assembly of Experts responsible for identifying all individuals qualified for leadership—this extends beyond Iran, as the concept of ‘Velayat-e Faqih’ transcends borders. This committee works under strict confidentiality, and three members have been chosen to securely hold the names of potential candidates.”
Yeah, we don't know if Mahdavi is saying the true, but there were some media reports about the Assembly of Experts working on that issue already in the past (for example here).
I think the rumors about the Khamenei being in coma are just rumors. I know his age is serious, and his health was impacted by surviving a bomb assassination attempt many years ago, but the base rate about such rumors being true is really making me think this is very unlikely true. There is this image of his meeting with Mojtaba Amani dated to happen on November 17, in Tehran. Yes, that could be fake if Iranian top players want to gain some more time before announcement, but it is much more probable that it is just another example of this media effect (for the reference, see this great comment by shibboleth about media reactions to Kim Jong-un disappearances: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/#comment-28950).
Here is my own analysis of a similar phenomenon related to the Iranian Supreme Leader:
Report: Claims surfaced that Khamenei was on his deathbed due to advanced cancer. Speculation arose about potential succession struggles, particularly involving his son Mojtaba and President Ebrahim Raisi.
Report: Rumors about Khamenei's death and power transfer to his son Mojtaba were triggered by journalist Mohamad Ahwaze. Officials denied these rumors, calling them fabrications by enemies. Iranian media emphasized Khamenei’s good health.
3. March 8, 2015
Source: RFERL
Title: "Iran Supreme Leader Makes Public Appearance Amid Ill Health Rumors"
Report: Khamenei reappeared in public amid rumors of hospitalization and critical illness following prostate surgery in 2014.
I am increasing, very slightly, treating reports about the Iranian Assembly of Experts being tasked to choose Khamenei's successor as a weak signal at best, as there were such reports in the past. I think the quote from this article describes it best:
Yeah, we don't know if Mahdavi is saying the true, but there were some media reports about the Assembly of Experts working on that issue already in the past (for example here).
I think the rumors about the Khamenei being in coma are just rumors. I know his age is serious, and his health was impacted by surviving a bomb assassination attempt many years ago, but the base rate about such rumors being true is really making me think this is very unlikely true. There is this image of his meeting with Mojtaba Amani dated to happen on November 17, in Tehran. Yes, that could be fake if Iranian top players want to gain some more time before announcement, but it is much more probable that it is just another example of this media effect (for the reference, see this great comment by shibboleth about media reactions to Kim Jong-un disappearances: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/#comment-28950).
Here is my own analysis of a similar phenomenon related to the Iranian Supreme Leader:
All the deaths of Ali Khamenei
1. September 11-20, 2022
Sources:
Express.co.uk "Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei 'on death bed with cancer' – regime risks 'imploding'" https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1667757/Iran-Supreme-Leader-Ali-Khamenei-heath-fears-dead-cancer-regime-collapse-Ayatollah
Report: Claims surfaced that Khamenei was on his deathbed due to advanced cancer. Speculation arose about potential succession struggles, particularly involving his son Mojtaba and President Ebrahim Raisi.
Atlantic Council: "The Supreme Leader is still alive. But when he does eventually die, how will succession play out?", https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/the-supreme-leader-is-still-alive-but-when-he-does-eventually-die-how-will-succession-play-out/
Report: Addressed rumors of Khamenei's death after two weeks of absence. On September 17, 2022, he reappeared briefly to dispel rumors.
2. December 6–7, 2020
Sources:
Jewish Press: "Unconfirmed Reports: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Is Dead" (https://www.jewishpress.com/news/politics/unconfirmed-reports-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-is-dead/2020/12/06/)
Times of Israel: "Reports of Khamenei’s death greatly exaggerated, Iranian official says" (https://www.timesofisrael.com/reports-of-khameneis-death-greatly-exaggerated-iranian-official-says/)
International Business Times: "Is Ali Khamenei dead; rumours are rife amid Iran Supreme Leader's health concerns" (https://www.ibtimes.co.in/ali-khamenei-dead-rumours-are-rife-amid-iran-supreme-leaders-health-concerns-830964)
Report: Rumors about Khamenei's death and power transfer to his son Mojtaba were triggered by journalist Mohamad Ahwaze. Officials denied these rumors, calling them fabrications by enemies. Iranian media emphasized Khamenei’s good health.
3. March 8, 2015
Source: RFERL
Title: "Iran Supreme Leader Makes Public Appearance Amid Ill Health Rumors"
Report: Khamenei reappeared in public amid rumors of hospitalization and critical illness following prostate surgery in 2014.
URL: https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-supreme-leader-public-appearance-khamenei/26888421.html
4. November 30, 2010
Source: SBS News
Title: "Iran's supreme leader 'has terminal cancer'"
Report: A U.S. diplomatic memo revealed claims that Khamenei had terminal leukemia and might die within months. No further verification was provided.
URL: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/irans-supreme-leader-has-terminal-cancer/n2q30g6tv
5. October 2009
Sources:
Jerusalem Post: "Rumors say Ayatollah Khamenei in coma" (https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0%2C7340%2CL-3790774%2C00.html)
YNetNews: "Iranian website: No truth to rumors that Khamenei is in a coma" (https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0%2C7340%2CL-3790774%2C00.html)
Report: Rumors emerged that Khamenei had fallen into a coma or collapsed. Iranian officials dismissed these reports as baseless Western propaganda.
6. January 7, 2007
Sources:
YNetNews: "Online rumors: Iran's supreme leader dead" (https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3348764,00.html)
YNetNews: "Another official denial: Khamenei not dead" (https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3349358,00.html)
Report: Speculation over Khamenei’s death following cancer treatment circulated widely. Officials denied the claims.
I also found some interesting opinions about the role of the Experts Assembly:
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401143718#:~:text=The%20Expert%20Assembly%20lacks%20legitimacy%20among%20insiders%2C%20as%20it%20comprises%20low%2Dlevel%20clerics%2C%20who%20have%20not%20won%20their%20seats%20in%20competitive%20and%20free%20elections%20but%20essentially%20appointed%20to%20their%20positions.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403069020#:~:text=Mahdavi%20Azad%20observed,decisions%20made%20elsewhere.