Following the research and rationale by @michal_dubrawski, and encuraging other colleagues to check out his most recent comment and fill out his google poll.
I assume Kim Jong Un is eager to (re)start relations with the Trump Administration on a positive footing, which means suspending any plans for nuclear testing for now. That does not mean suspending work on the nuclear weapons program, which I assue is progressing apace and perhaps even accelerating a bit with Russian technical assistance. If things go badly for Kim with the Trump Admin in the first few months of 2025 -- which is quite possibly given Marco Rubio's and Michael Walz's more traditionally conservative views of North Korea as a pariah state-- my forecast for a DPRL nuclear test would rise alot.
Following the research and rationale by @michal_dubrawski, and encuraging other colleagues to check out his most recent comment and fill out his google poll.
I assume Kim Jong Un is eager to (re)start relations with the Trump Administration on a positive footing, which means suspending any plans for nuclear testing for now. That does not mean suspending work on the nuclear weapons program, which I assue is progressing apace and perhaps even accelerating a bit with Russian technical assistance. If things go badly for Kim with the Trump Admin in the first few months of 2025 -- which is quite possibly given Marco Rubio's and Michael Walz's more traditionally conservative views of North Korea as a pariah state-- my forecast for a DPRL nuclear test would rise alot.