PeterStamp
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Less than or equal to 59
6% (-3%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
23% (-2%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
36% (+3%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
35% (+3%)
More than or equal to 90

16 cases so far, latest one on 25 November. Two cases added in the past 10 days.

Extrapolation would still be highest bin (rounded up to 90), and there might also be some reporting lag. Extrapolating only last 10 days (2*36.5) would end up at 73. Still no direct connection to the election to be seen.

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/?disinfo_language[]=German

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MrLittleTexas
made a comment:
I currently only see 1 in the last 15 days "25.11.2024 DISINFO: Major German political decisions follow the chain of command from Washington"
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PeterStamp
made a comment:
It´s "german language" filter on the site according to resolution criteria, and that´s 16 cases since 1 October. You are right about this: only one single case having more or less to do with the next election in February. This question and it´s resolution site don´t belong together too much...
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MrLittleTexas
made a comment:
Sorry if I'm misunderstanding - what is the second case listed nice Nov 20 other than the one I mentioned? I do see 16 cases since Oct 1 but I don't see the "two cases added in the past 10 days" you mentioned
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PeterStamp
made a comment:
Now I think, we´ve got it: I meant "added to the list in the last 10 days since my last forecast". That does not mean event dates, it´s about publishing dates.
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MrLittleTexas
made a comment:
makes sense. Thank you!
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