404_NOT_FOUND
made their 7th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 27, 2025 02:50AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (-3%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025
93% (+3%)
No
Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Trump is negotiating the end of the conflict in Ukraine directly with Russia. NK is directly involved in the conflict, yet the country hasn't been mentioned so far in the talks.

THE DIPLOMAT - Any real prospects of reviving the U.N. sanctions regime will require Moscow to recommit to U.N. sanctions – a daunting, perhaps impossible, task. The bigger problem, however, is that neither Trump nor Putin has much incentive to address the North Korea issue.

The dilemma is that Putin has few incentives to abandon his new strategic partner, North Korea, and Trump has few incentives to revisit one of his biggest foreign policy failures of his first term. [1]

The feeling is probably reciprocal. Putin and Trump don't want to address the NK problem, and KJU doesn't want NK to be addressed at all. 

In the current context, performing a new nuclear test would serve no purpose other than creating problems for Putin (who is paying handsomely for North Korean supplies of weapons and personnel), and triggering a potential reinvigorated reaction of volatile Trump.

In conclusion, escalating tensions now or over the next 6 months would serve no purpose for KJU.

[1] Collateral Damage: UN Sanctions on North Korea at Risk in Putin-Trump Dealings

Files
Why might you be wrong?

No change

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username