“China will capitalize on the opportunity created and build more partnerships with aggrieved parties,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “The US is dismantling the global trade order that has been established for decades, and there is no better time for China to jump in and demonstrate the alternative. I suspect we will see it in China’s diplomatic playbook across the globe.”
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Why might you be wrong?
Just because China will likely grow its trade with Africa doesn't necessarily translate to a new military base.
The global chaos that Trump is wreaking on the world may reduce China's taste for investments of the size needed for a military base.
It's a long time frame and this would be an expansion of the string of pearls strategy. I may reevaluate because between now and 2027 Xi will marshal all naval forces in SCS.
And the US patrol the approaches to the Persian Gulf and Red Sea at a cost of billions. So why does China need such a base?
Why do you think you're right?
Moving up a couple of points based on Trump's tariffs. Targeting African countries with tariffs leaves them ripe for the picking by China. IMHO
https://www.vox.com/world-politics/407638/trump-tariffs-china-trade
FTA:
“China will capitalize on the opportunity created and build more partnerships with aggrieved parties,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “The US is dismantling the global trade order that has been established for decades, and there is no better time for China to jump in and demonstrate the alternative. I suspect we will see it in China’s diplomatic playbook across the globe.”
Why might you be wrong?
Just because China will likely grow its trade with Africa doesn't necessarily translate to a new military base.
The global chaos that Trump is wreaking on the world may reduce China's taste for investments of the size needed for a military base.
It's a long time frame and this would be an expansion of the string of pearls strategy. I may reevaluate because between now and 2027 Xi will marshal all naval forces in SCS.
And the US patrol the approaches to the Persian Gulf and Red Sea at a cost of billions. So why does China need such a base?
Its no sure thing