Here is a rough timeline of GPT releases (from Wikipedia):
GPT-1: June 2018
GPT-2: February 2019
GPT-3: June 2020
GPT-3.5: March 2022
GPT-4: March 2023
So, it took ~8 months from the original GPT-1 to GPT-2, more than one year between the releases of GPT-2 & GPT-3, almost 3 years between GPT-3 & GPT-4, and one full year between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Given the overwhelming (and expensive) effort that in all likelihood will be needed for GPT-5, there is almost no chance (to use the terminology suggested by the intelligence community) that it will be released in 2023, just ~9 months after GPT-4.
Moreover, according to the GPT-4 technical paper (p.42), it took 7 months from the point when GPT-4 completed training (August 2022) to its release (March 2023):
Since [GPT-4] finished training in August of 2022, we have been evaluating, adversarially testing, and iteratively improving the model and the system-level mitigations around it
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has been quoted in The Verge (Apr 14) saying that OpenAI is not currently working on GPT-5 and "won't for some time". Here is also Wired, from Mar 29:
Hannah Wong, a spokesperson for OpenAI, says the company spent more than six months working on the safety and alignment of GPT-4 after training the model. She adds that OpenAI is not currently training GPT-5.
Currently, I don't have any reason to doubt the above statements.
There is a related question in Metaculus on the expected date of GPT-5 announcement; currently, the median forecast is for September 2024 (was August 2024 yesterday, FWIW) and the lower 25th quartile for March 2024: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15462/gpt-5-announcement/
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Why might you be wrong?
There is a research report by Morgan Stanley from February 2023, claiming that GPT-5 was already being trained, but it largely seems to be a fluke (it was published even before the GPT-4 announcement): https://twitter.com/davidtayar5/status/1625140481016340483/
Why do you think you're right?
Here is a rough timeline of GPT releases (from Wikipedia):
So, it took ~8 months from the original GPT-1 to GPT-2, more than one year between the releases of GPT-2 & GPT-3, almost 3 years between GPT-3 & GPT-4, and one full year between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Given the overwhelming (and expensive) effort that in all likelihood will be needed for GPT-5, there is almost no chance (to use the terminology suggested by the intelligence community) that it will be released in 2023, just ~9 months after GPT-4.
Moreover, according to the GPT-4 technical paper (p.42), it took 7 months from the point when GPT-4 completed training (August 2022) to its release (March 2023):
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has been quoted in The Verge (Apr 14) saying that OpenAI is not currently working on GPT-5 and "won't for some time". Here is also Wired, from Mar 29:
Currently, I don't have any reason to doubt the above statements.
There is a related question in Metaculus on the expected date of GPT-5 announcement; currently, the median forecast is for September 2024 (was August 2024 yesterday, FWIW) and the lower 25th quartile for March 2024: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15462/gpt-5-announcement/
Why might you be wrong?
There is a research report by Morgan Stanley from February 2023, claiming that GPT-5 was already being trained, but it largely seems to be a fluke (it was published even before the GPT-4 announcement): https://twitter.com/davidtayar5/status/1625140481016340483/