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I started with a base rate of roughly 3.8% from Laplace’s rule. I revised down, much closer to 0% given the historical rarity of autocratic regime changes during offensive wars. Putin has also intensified the purging of potential political opponents since the war began, leaving very few figures with enough gravity to attract support. There has been no evidence of Putin establishing an heir to his power.
I again revised my near-zero probability upward, given Putin’s age of 71 is very near the life expectancy of Russian males (71.34 as of 2020).