127th
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2e10e122

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.001632
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.18899
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? -0.044442
Jan 04, 2022 01:10PM UTC What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.219805
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? -0.024569
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.075428
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.00549
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.003339
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.016129
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? 0.01206
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.00717
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) 0.0112
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.00119
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.032447
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.0102
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.009584
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.000835
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM UTC What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021? -0.056032
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.0102
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.00017
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