A19

Looking at the latest forecasts it seems that there is quite an increase towards the no side.

Towards the end of the last year I was starting to doubt my no stance because of the European Union push towards more regulations in the AI sector and the preliminary approval of a text that could suggest the labelling of AI generated text.

However it seems unlikely that the text will have an effect any time soon and in the light of continuous opposition, it is possible that a watered down version might be implemented.

(Source:  30.01.2024, https://www.euractiv.com/section/artificial-intelligence/opinion/eu-does-not-need-to-wait-for-the-ai-act-to-act/ ).

In addition, I still don't think that there is a system capable to reliable detect AI texts nor that one can be reliably implemented, especially in the case of short messages like the ones used by Meta and X.

This is why, for now, I will confirm my support for the no field.

Lack of time. Though now there is some kind of mild optimism that a new president might come, the timeframes seems to be about next year, with the different forces trying to want to capitalize from the cooperation they build to recently choose a chief of the army:

• "Presidential revival attempts at the beginning of the year... and the search is underway for common spaces, 26.12.2023, google translated"
  

Recently the EU has pushed forward a new regulation on AI (European Council, Artificial intelligence act: Council and Parliament strike a deal on the first rules for AI in the world, 09.12.2023), but this regulation is not yet well defined and the opposition has not yet given up (Euronews, Potentially disastrous' for innovation: Tech sector reacts to the EU AI Act saying it goes too far, 15.12.2023).

Even without opposition, the European elections could delay the proceedings:

(source: see before)

and even without that the legislation would still require a certain amount of time before fully taking effect:

(Source: Dentons, The New EU AI Act – the 10 key things you need to know now, 14.12.2023).

On this matter California also is trying to regulate the industry but here also the government has found quite an opposition from lobbyists.

Up until now I have defended the no side, but all those pressures towards an increase of regulation have me concerned and for this I have started to slightly increase my yes prediction.

This year, up until now (12.12) the count has reached the 687 fatalities, but with no signs of a rapid and decisive deterioration of the situation, I think that it's highly unlikely that the count will exceed the 2000 fatalities.

I was slightly concerned during my last prediction by the news of fightings in Leer however, while there are still episodes of violence (11.12.2023 Security Council Press Statement on Violence in South Sudan and Abyei) there hasn't been an escalation in the fighting.

This is why I will once again align my prediction with the one from the crowd.

Up until now we have reached around 673 battle related fatalities in South Sudan and I think that it is unlikely that in the next month the count will increase by the 1327 needed to answer yes to this question.

But

I can't fully exclude it because fighting has started in the country. While there isn't yet much data, I believe that the ACLED count might go up quite a bit in the following weeks because:

• US Embassy Concerned About Renewed Fighting in South Sudan's Leer 29.11.2023
• UNMISS calls for immediate end to fighting and mobilizations in Leer County, Unity State 30.11.2023
• Brigadier general killed in Leer fighting 29.11.2023
• Statement on Recent Reports of Violence in Leer County, Unity State 29.11.2023

These earlier news suggest that there might be a few thousands of new displaced linked to these fightings, but earlier indications about the number of victims are in the dozens.

At the moment I am more inclined to see this battle as an isolated incident but, just in case, I have slightly changed my prediction so that the yes is no more an impossibility. 

I think that the next weeks might be quite important to verify if it was just an isolated incident or if this the first sign of the the opening of the floodgates.

Looking at the past reports, Exxon 4Q financial report should arrive towards the end of January, so there are around two months until the end of the question.

However, after the announcement at the start of the year regarding their exit from the algae biofuel market I didn't found any further news linking Exxon and algae based biofuel.

While as a company they are still investing in biofuels, they are now betting on other raw materials like wood (Knock on wood: turning biomass into fuel) and I don't think that they will backtrack and suddenly announce a new algae based project.

That is why I will keep my prediction in line with the crowd and not expect anything before Q1 2024.