Under the presidency of Nayib Bukele, he and his militaries crackdown on incarcerating over 70,000 gang members in prison have resulted in signifiant reduction of deaths caused by gang violence down to about 0.41 deaths per day. While this is a rough estimate, life in El Salvador has grown far more stable, safer and lively according to friends of mine living in El Salvador. I believe that with the crackdown and sweep teams, President Nayib Bukele has invoked fear amongst the gangs in El Salvador whereas I believe crime of gang violence will not go over 200 deaths by May 2024.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than or equal to 49
20%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
30%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
48%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 200
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Probability
Answer
0%
Kuwait
0%
Oman
1%
Qatar
25%
Saudi Arabia
0%
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
Although the opportunity for Israel to be recognized as a statehood has increases in chance, I believe its a low to mid chance before the end of the year 2024. With current events happening with Saudi Arabia and the Israeli governments, there are a lot of exchanges and pre-requisits that need to happen fast if Saudi Arabia will recognize Israel by the end of next year. As for that countries of Kuwait, Oman and Tunisia; there won't be any recognition on any of their part as they choose to deliberately choose not to recognize Israel. The Tunisian president Kris Saied has stated that "Normalization does not exist for him when it comes to Israel."
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Why might you be wrong?
The chance is slim for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel although with the talks between the two governments, demand and exchanges may not be feasible to execute before the end of 2024.
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With multiple companies and governments trying to go back to the moon lately, it's highly possible that a company or Japan is bound to land safely on the moon with their latest technology
Fellow forecaster @Aalanis88 I`d like to point out a weakness on this forecast, since there is evidence of the presence of "The Correlation/Causation Fallacy".
Multiple independent efforts to go back to the Moon do not guarantee the success. :)