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Adam6180

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 2%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 3%
Tunisia 0% 1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:11PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 0%
No 99% 100%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Aug 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2025 Nov 12, 2024 8%
No 92% Aug 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2025 Nov 12, 2024 92%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Aug 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2025 Nov 12, 2024 5%
No 92% Aug 12, 2024 to Aug 12, 2025 Nov 12, 2024 95%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 5% 7%
Armenia 2% 1%
Georgia 2% 3%
Kazakhstan 1% 1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Aug 12, 2024 to Feb 12, 2025 Nov 12, 2024 3%
No 99% Aug 12, 2024 to Feb 12, 2025 Nov 12, 2024 97%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 12, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 11%
No 75% 89%
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