The information I have indicates that things are largely falling into place for an orbital attempt window to open sometime within the next month. This leans toward somewhere between a 30-50% chance of actually being ready to make the attempt before the deadline. Discounting for potential scrubs, delays or an actual failure of the launch I reduce my estimate somewhat.
0.052983
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2
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Answer
30%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The last reported public information for the first flight trajectory indicates that the orbit would have a perigee within the atmosphere, which depending on how reporters feel that day, it may be reported as a suborbital flight. I am largely ignoring this possibility in my estimate, which could be a mistake.
I may be overestimating the probability of a launch being successful, conditional on it occurring at all. I may be underestimating the impact of potential delays.
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Why do you think you're right?
It's clear at this point that SpaceX is choosing to spend more time on mission assurance, including finishing additional work on the orbital launch platform, making a launch before April significantly much less likely than it appeared a couple of weeks ago.
Why might you be wrong?
SpaceX is SpaceX, and plans can change rapidly.