RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.058582
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.044857
Feb 05, 2021 05:35PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?	0.093493
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.207431
Feb 01, 2021 02:48PM UTC	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.477161
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.015988
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	0.140216
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC	What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.045199
Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM UTC	When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?	-0.0116
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	0.157177
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.025917
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.029181
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.009732
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.00938
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.678463
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	0.583421
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	0.096814
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	0.319511
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?	-0.001038
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC	Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020?	-0.028964

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