Andhem2020

The junta in control is not in a strong military position, and in recent months it has been defeated in several battles. This may affect their incentive to act in a certain way. The question therefore is if other groups could drive the junta from power and hold elections. It now appears unlikely that the junta will determine the election, and time is running out for another group to first take over, and then arrange elections.

Actions aligning with a change have already happened during 2023 when a new AI office was opened in Canada and staff from, among others, China was moved there. This change came amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and China. That the office in China would close has been denied by official statements from Microsoft officials. Without a specific incident, numerous points support a status quo. First of all, it could harm Microsoft’s interests in China. Furthermore, sparks tension that would not benefit Microsoft. Furthermore, it would be expensive.

The likelihood of Iran avoiding engaging in war depends on numerous factors, both internal and external. Such as regional tensions, internal instability, and pressure from international actors. Given that multiple sources present data that indicates a reluctance from Iran to engage in direct military confrontation with Israel and the US, it seems unlikely that Iran will initiate war with another country within the given period. Instead, Iran appears to avoid direct military confrontations. This analysis may very well shift during the year. Yet, the likelihood will remain low as long as nothing unexpected happens these coming months which brings with it a complete shift in Iran's priorities. This is very unlikely.