Antonio_mello

Although I believe that China may eventually invade or harass Taiwan, I doubt this will happen within the next six months.

On May 23, 2024, China conducted a large-scale military exercise and released a simulated video of an attack on Taiwan.

Over the past six months, China has been increasing military pressure on Taiwan, sending planes and warships into Taiwanese territories as a form of intimidation.

Additionally, China's dependence on chip production has decreased in recent years as planned by the Chinese government, making its economy less vulnerable to the effects of chip and semiconductor shortages.

However, retaliation from the US and the international community remains a significant deterrent to China's attempts to invade the island. The outcome of the American election is uncertain, and depending on who wins, American retaliation might be severe. Even though Donald Trump has stated he would not help Taiwan in the case of external aggression, his stance could easily change after an electoral victory,a nd usher a far more confrontational approach to Beijing and he did in his first administration.

China's economy has also struggled, and its GDP may decrease in the coming year, making a war difficult and inconvenient to manage.

This is why I believe that although China is preparing for an invasion or attack, it is unlikely to proceed within the next six months. A blockade is unlikely because China's economy is not entirely independent of the international trade of chips and semiconductors. It will likely take several years for a blockade against Taiwan to be financially harmless to China.

Microsoft will not announce the closing or realocation of its lab until the end of 2025. Mostly, the company will wait for the next moves of the American foreigner policy towards China and its shift after the 2024's election. China still is an important tech hub.

The normalization of Israel by Saudi Arabia is unlikely to progress in the next six months. Let's consider the current political scenario.

Saudi Arabia has been critical of Israel's military actions and its treatment of the Arab population. The Saudi Kingdom has also urged European governments to strongly condemn Israel's actions and violations in Palestine.

Furthermore, the normalization agreement requires Saudi Arabia to strengthen bilateral defense and trade relations with the US. However, this mutual agreement needs approval by 67 votes in the American Senate to become binding, and from what I've observed, the American Congress will be focused on many internal issues following the 2024 Election.

For this reason, even though Saudi Arabia and the US are deeply interested in such an agreement, the deal will not be possible until a ceasefire is established in the Israel-Hamas conflict and a pathway to a Palestinian State is created. Both options are out of reach in the short term, which is why the normalization process will not resume in such a short period.

The Ukrainian city of Kharkiv continues to suffer serious Russian offensives, being targeted by over 800 glide bombs from Russia. However, Russian forces have had their advance halted by Ukrainian resistance, which has been enhanced due to the efforts of Western powers with contributions in weaponry and financial aid, making intense attacks with troops less likely. However the odds are larger in region than it is in other major ukranians cities. 

Kyiv and Odessa, on the other hand, are unlikely to suffer direct attacks from Russian troops.