RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.004562
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.490551
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	-0.01135
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	-0.030056
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	0.215664
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	-0.062356
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	0.177576
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2	-0.000688
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.403302
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC	How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021	-0.006923
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.117333
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.074651

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