Confirmed previous forecast
0.027013
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 4, 2024 04:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
84%
(0%)
No
Jun 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 29, 2024 06:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
May 29, 2024 to Nov 29, 2024
80%
(0%)
No
May 29, 2024 to Nov 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(0%)
Yes
16%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 2, 2024 03:11PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(+2%)
Yes
May 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
84%
(-2%)
No
May 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
Given the number of Israelis still dispossessed near the border due to Hezbollah activity, I don't think avoiding a war is possible at the moment. There might be a question as to how extensive or official the combat is, though. And Hezbollah might try to fudge things by ceasing hostile activity and pulling back less than the 20 miles Israel would like.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 24, 2024 05:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+10%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
80%
(-10%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
Yoav Gallant noting that Israel was carrying out "offensive action" in Lebanon, in conjunction with a large number of airstrikes, points towards further escalation in the area.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Window closing....
Files
I see very little opposition pressure to remove him, and very little external appetite to push it.