Confirmed previous forecast
0.025032
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
40%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-55%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Israeli/Hamas war will likely impede any movement towards reconciliation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Pigs might fly
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 25, 2023 03:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 25, 2023 to Feb 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Like hood increases as Saudis talk with Israel.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Middle Eastern p9litics are always volitale
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Moon crash sets their program back years. Funding has been cut due to their war on Ukraine.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Do they have a backup
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I believe the Saudi would like to normalize but the Israeli/Hamas war probably prevents this.
Why might you be wrong?
Moves by Turkey and Iran could push Saudis in the direction of alignment with Israe. They would. It wish to play second fiddle to Iran in being the major 8nfluencer in the Middle East.