RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	-0.008425
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	0.104852
May 15, 2024 10:00PM	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 15, 2024 and May 15, 2024)	0.1463
Apr 15, 2024 10:00PM	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 15, 2024 and Apr 15, 2024)	0.764535
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM	Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)	-0.108289
Jan 15, 2024 10:00PM	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2023 and Jan 15, 2024)	0.379826
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.158689
Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023)	0.464453
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.448166