Confirmed previous forecast
0.154152
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 5 | 44 | 35 | 68 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Kuwait
1%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
5%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 17, 2024 07:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Aug 17, 2024 to Feb 17, 2025
100%
No
Aug 17, 2024 to Feb 17, 2025
No signs they are currently preparing to do so.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 17, 2024 07:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 17, 2024 to Feb 17, 2025
99%
(+1%)
No
Aug 17, 2024 to Feb 17, 2025
updated
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 17, 2024 07:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Aug 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2024
98%
(+1%)
No
Aug 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2024
updated
Files