| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
There is no indication that the Houthis intend to halt their attacks, and in any case oil companies will likely remain risk-averse, barring unforeseen circumstances elsewhere.
I have a slightly higher probability of a change because I think it's possible that other oil routes might also suffer from attacks (e.g. piracy in the Gulf of Guinea) or weather-related delays, meaning that travel through the Red Sea could be seen as more desirable (as it's faster, even if the risks are similar)
Reducing previous forecast significantly. While possible, I think it's a lot less likely to happen than I thought, and even if it does occur eventually, it may take some time.
There have already been social media posts written by artificial intelligence. I think it is somewhat likely that there will be a notable social media post with the potential for at least minor economic harm in the next month or so. If that occurs, I could see at least one of the above-mentioned companies (whether or not it occurs on their platform) imposing the listed policy.
While somewhat likely, I think the chances of it happening before June 1, 2024, are less likely than not to happen (thus, my prediction of a 42? chance of occurring).
Had the percentages flipped (thanks @ctsats ).