I think this could happen in the future but not this early.
-0.102837
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 09:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2024
5%
No
Feb 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2024
Hezbollah doesn't want a war and I believe one would have happened by now
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
The pace of this war is not sustainable and I believe it will not drag out this long
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 09:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
Given the accelerated timetable of Iran's enrichment program, this happening is unlikely, but certainly possible
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 14, 2024 09:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 14, 2024 to Aug 14, 2024
Extremely unlikely but possible given the optimal window is closing
Files
They do not want a war and would have launched one already