David

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Father of two with a background in computer science, natural resources, and business.

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? -0.000057
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.001561
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? -0.027283
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? -0.000519
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000471
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? -0.002963
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.021914
    Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? -0.045551
    Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023) 0.0
    Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? -0.347635
    Sep 5, 2023 08:34AM Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? -0.006652
    Sep 1, 2023 09:00PM How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? -0.010198
    Aug 22, 2023 09:00AM Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? 0.022851
    Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) 0.0
    Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.001712
    Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) -0.000193
    Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? 0.16006
    Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) -0.000161
    May 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.0
    May 15, 2023 05:45PM Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? -0.000185
     
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